Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 13.849776 15.846454 17.999909 20.491392 23.290726 26.334896 29.892006
2025-02-16 10.775301 13.449657 16.560688 20.432070 25.104362 30.544187 37.339174
2025-02-23 9.203021 12.150342 15.749040 20.438423 26.356471 33.542970 42.892727
2025-03-02 8.107059 11.251801 15.259734 20.697803 27.832429 36.816369 48.918682
2025-03-09 7.189453 10.427824 14.713285 20.736172 28.907576 39.522080 54.251187
2025-03-16 6.357290 9.607850 14.062341 20.529269 29.576713 41.666385 58.898320
2025-03-23 5.790912 9.085720 13.746099 20.712602 30.730526 44.458161 64.494532
2025-03-30 5.446093 8.841023 13.782918 21.367534 32.546370 48.212470 71.564810
2025-04-06 4.920791 8.267219 13.280854 21.180554 33.111879 50.207054 76.222569
2025-04-13 4.253590 7.404247 12.266569 20.136762 32.322907 50.179268 77.926224
2025-04-20 4.014521 7.200983 12.242977 20.590225 33.786113 53.485675 84.629884
2025-04-27 3.791642 7.001108 12.203051 21.003211 35.193104 56.754598 91.403832
2025-05-04 3.463723 6.599653 11.816113 20.848239 35.723861 58.757480 96.420181
2025-05-11 3.143585 6.181342 11.367323 20.556534 36.011417 60.390755 100.938850
2025-05-18 2.923599 5.919433 11.158135 20.640410 36.897637 62.981499 107.042575
2025-05-25 2.748909 5.723639 11.045843 20.875755 38.037840 66.016874 113.972099
2025-06-01 2.561709 5.485537 10.837626 20.923283 38.851515 68.544092 120.170370
2025-06-08 2.355251 5.189614 10.499780 20.711742 39.196361 70.298643 125.156364
2025-06-15 2.220821 5.023791 10.388158 20.897546 40.236745 73.247211 132.229841
2025-06-22 2.156146 4.994180 10.530312 21.557411 42.149188 77.747977 142.088855
2025-06-29 1.994872 4.747034 10.233544 21.369044 42.510777 79.588110 147.470042
2025-07-06 1.752797 4.302310 9.512757 20.316797 41.218780 78.474939 147.682396
2025-07-13 1.689903 4.245292 9.565478 20.773934 42.762390 82.426853 156.899893